WHICH ELEPHANT WILL LEAD THE PACK INTO 2012

There is an air of excitement within the country as we draw closer to January 20, 2009. The day when President-elect Obama becomes the next President of the free world. Even as a conservative, I feel a twinge of anticipation at the change that will surely take place. For some, change is hard to swallow…but for others, it is what keeps life from becoming insipid.

Most of my republican compatriots find joy in speculating the future of the GOP in 2012. Since Election Night (a.k.a. ‘Night of Terror’), I have read many opinions about who will come forth as the party leader and remove it from the murky depth it is treading in.

Is it possible to get back to Reagan grassroots politics and focus on smaller government, traditional social issues and economic development? I hope that the face of our party will transform and include many colors and denominations. Let us not forget that Martin Luther King was a Republican – what would he think of the party now?

Therefore, I have decided to toss my hat into the mix and share my predictions about which elephants will lead this party out of the current quagmire and into 2012. The year of redemption.



1. Governor Bobby Jindal, Louisiana is by far the most talked about potential candidate. He is a gifted orator and has the ability to connect with various classes of people. His handling of recent hurricane threats has brought attention to his leadership aptitude. He lowered taxes while reducing the state deficit by slashing inflated budgets and needless spending. He is an Indian American, Roman Catholic and hails from Baton Rouge. He is my front-runner.



2. Governor Sarah Palin, Alaska is poised to make a move into the higher ranks of the GOP, depending on what route she decides to take. She is definitely a lightning rod with more liberal conservatives but brings an excitement and following that no GOP candidate has been able to do in years. She has the ability to electrify a crowd and has learned a few lessons regarding the national spotlight. If she can stay in the mainstream while developing her political resume (foreign affairs/economic development) in the interim, she has a shot at being on the ticket. I personally hope she will move up the political ladder in some form because many conservatives are aligned with her values. She should not be dismissed as a front runner in 2012.



3. Senator John Thune, South Dakota will be a force that democratic leadership will reckon with. His name gained distinction among republicans when he ousted Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. He was elected by his fellow Republican Senators to the position of Vice Chairman of the Republican Conference, the fifth-highest Republican leadership position in the United States Senate. This position will allow him to design party message, policy and strategy. His downfall? He doesn’t represent a key state and may be considered by some a ‘Washington insider’ but he has the game face for the national media. He is definitely one to watch.



4. Representative John Boehner, Ohio is a 9th term congressman and the current party minority leader in the House of Representatives. As House Republican Conference Chairman in the 104th and 105th Congress, Boehner was a powerful voice in the fight to force Washington to stick to strict spending limits in the Balanced Budget Act. More recently, in 109th Congress, Boehner led passage of new reforms clamping down on earmarks – special interest projects quietly inserted into spending bills. He hails from a key battleground state and was vetted by the McCain campaign for potential VP selection. With Ohio recently tagged as one of the most devastated states by the economic downturn, he has the opportunity to prove his leadership by utilizing resources in Washington to assist the Buckeye state.

5. Governor Mark Sanford, South Carolina was recently elected chair of the Republican Governors Association and has been vocal in his desire for the party to return to the principles established by Ronald Reagan. He is a fiscal conservative with a proven record in South Carolina. Under his leadership, SC passed comprehensive tort reform and cut the marginal income tax rate – both firsts in the states’ history. Even more appealing to potential voters – a fifteen year record for employment growth. SC has over 170,000 more people employed than there was when Sanford took office.



6. Representative Eric Canter, Virginia is the only Jewish Republican in the House and has been elected to the second highest position in his party’s leadership. Cantor won a unanimous election as minority whip in the U.S. House of Representatives after serving as chief deputy whip for the past six years. He will be the chief deputy to House Minority Leader John Boehner. He has recently criticized his party for offering principles instead of "real solutions" to problems. In his new role, he has potential to become a voice among grassroots conservatives.



7. Governor Tim Pawlenty, Minnesota is regarded as one of the nation’s most innovative and reform-minded governors. He recently unveiled the ‘green job industrial initiative’ for his state. Pawlenty believes the development of a green job industry will compare with that of the Industrial Revolution. The project is expected to ignite job growth and investment by offering tax and investment incentives to companies who come to Minnesota. This could be a small scale national model and if it works, he will reap the benefits from it politically. Pawlenty was a rumored favorite for McCain’s VP choice among many conservatives.

8. Senator Jim DeMint, South Carolina has been adamant in sharing his criticism of the failed McCain campaign and the current state of the GOP. While some find him a bit overzealous, he is a regarded by many as a leader in reform. DeMint has made clear his desire to go to the finance panel, and it is up to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to decide the issue. McConnell would do well to endorse the South Carolinian. DeMint is currently head of the Senate Steering Committee and has been an articulate leader in exposing and opposing the spending culture that creates credibility-sapping scandals. The finance panel has jurisdiction over taxation, health care, trade and entitlement reform, exactly the issues where DeMint’s outspokenness can do the GOP the most good.

9. Governor Mitch Daniels, Indiana just won a second term seat in a hotly contested state. He uses his past experience in business to focus on strengthening Indiana's economy, reforming state government, and restoring the fiscal integrity of the State. In 2006, the IEDC topped its 2005 results in only ten months while becoming the only state in the nation to land three high profile automotive investments - Toyota, Honda, and Cummins. He may have a little snag in getting to the GOP ticket – during recent campaigning he pledged not to run for a higher office to constituents. Although, we have heard that before.



10. Mitt Romney, former Governor Massachusetts is another lightning rod for many within the GOP. His critics fault him on flip-flopping issues and struggling with mixed emotion by voters over his Mormonism. Like him or not he is an expert on the economy and has his own financial wealth to draw upon should he run again. You would think that being an expert on the economy would have easily placed him on the GOP ticket in 2008. That is why I have listed him last on my list – because obviously, there is something more to him that is not well received by the conservative base to make it to the ticket in these dire financial times.


There are some contenders I left off this list such as Haley Barbour, Paul Ryan and Mike Huckabee. I think all three of these gentlemen will have an influence in the future, but doubt it will be on a presidential ticket.


Please feel free to share some of your thoughts and suggestions about what the future of the GOP will hold and who will lead the party and invigorate the base once again. It will be interesting to look back at this in two or three years to see if any of these characters will be in the battle for the prized GOP ticket.

UPDATE: (12-06-08) After I wrote this - I saw a poll on USA today about possible 2012 contenders. The link for that survey is below. A couple names on the survey surprise me - like Newt Gingrich and Rudy Guiliani. Gov Charlie Crist is listed also - and I probably should have mentioned him in my earlier post - but still would not have ranked him in my top ten. I wonder if the USA Today survey listed specific names or if people submitted random names. I find it hard to believe Pawlentry or Thune were not included.

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/presidential_election_2012/